Ibn Khaldoun Was Right: China Read Him. The West Did Not.
Seven centuries ago, on the arid plains of the Maghreb, a Tunisian scholar named Abd al-Rahman Ibn Khaldoun laid the foundations of what would become, unbeknownst to the West for centuries, the first genuinely scientific theory of civilisational history. In his Muqaddima (Prolegomena), written in 1377, he forged a central concept: Assabiyya , that collective energy, that irreducible social cohesion which allows a human group to rise, to conquer, to build, and, ineluctably, to decline. Seven centuries later, as the West digests with considerable unease what is politely referred to as "China's rise," it struck me that this medieval concept offers a reading key of troubling relevance. Not to celebrate, nor to condemn, this is not about passing political judgment on the regime in Beijing, but to understand: how did a civilisation that certain Western intellectuals had rather hastily buried in the rubble of the nineteenth century manage, in less than two generations, to shake...