The End of the Liberal cycle

The Western world, once the cradle and model of liberal democracies, is undergoing profound changes. The institutions that have long embodied the values of freedom, equality, and solidarity are now weakened, even contested. A wave of populism, both right and left, is shaking the foundations of these democracies, while authoritarian regimes, cloaked in modernity and exploiting popular discontent, present themselves as attractive alternatives. The recent re-election of Donald Trump in the United States, and JD Vance's virulent speech against liberal democratic values, mark a turning point: the end of a liberal cycle and the advent of a triumphant, mercantilist, and aggressive illiberal era.

This decline in the prestige of liberal democracies, and the values that underpin them, can be explained by a set of interdependent causes that feed off each other.

Economic Ultraliberalism: An Absolutist Ideology

Neoliberalism, embodied by the Chicago school of economic thought, has skillfully associated the laudable idea of economic freedom with a radical political and economic philosophy. The deregulation of markets, the promotion of free trade, the financialization of the economy, and the fetishization of profit have, over time, taken on an absolutist dimension. The regulatory state has been weakened, industries relocated under the guise of "virtuous free trade," and extractive finance has taken a predominant place, regardless of social and environmental consequences. This doctrine, now personified to excess by entrepreneur-prophet Elon Musk, has given rise to a form of unbridled capitalism, where profit maximization and wealth accumulation become the ultimate goals, and ever-larger multinationals play with national jurisdictions and buy political influence through battalions of revolving-door lobbyists, sacrificing social cohesion and environmental balances.

This ultraliberal frenzy has deepened inequalities, weakened the middle classes, and impoverished the most vulnerable populations. The rise of economic inequalities has fueled popular discontent and created fertile ground for the emergence of populist movements, which exploit the resentment of the losing classes of the economic-political competition. Consequently, democratic institutions, supposed to serve the common good, are increasingly contested.

Strategic Errors of Progressive Parties

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the left, facing the triumph of neoliberalism, prioritized identity themes through the defense of ethnic and sexual minorities, to the detriment of its historical role in fighting economic and social inequalities. This strategy promoted an ultra-individualistic vision of freedom, at the expense of collective solidarities and class struggle.

This choice had deleterious consequences for the social movement, which lost its weight and influence. The struggle for minority rights took a disproportionate place compared to the social, economic, and political problems faced by the losers of liberal globalization. The left thus lost significant political and ideological ground, leaving the way open for the rise of populist movements that seized popular frustrations.

The Dissolution of the "Demos"-"Cratos" Balance

Liberal democracies have seen a proliferation of counter-powers, regulations, and new individual rights, which have contributed to a weakening of political power and a loss of confidence in institutions. The subtle balance between the demos (the people) and the cratos (the power) has been broken, and citizens feel that political elites have become increasingly powerless to meet their expectations.

As political philosopher Pierre-Louis Tavoillot aptly analyzed: "Political power dissolves like authority, and ultimately, citizens feel deceived." This disconnection between citizens and political institutions has fueled resentment and created fertile ground for the emergence of populist movements, which rely on the anger and sense of injustice of the populations.

Precarious Young Generations

Young generations find themselves facing increased precariousness. The intergenerational wealth transfer in favor of baby boomers, who benefited from a period of economic prosperity, the boom in real estate and financial assets, and a more protective social system, has contributed to the precariousness of subsequent generations. Young people face difficulties in accessing employment, property, and education, which fuels a sense of injustice and frustration.

With rarefied prospects for social mobility, perceiving the system as unfavorable to them, young people are increasingly turning to populist movements that promise radical change.

Imperialist Hypocrisy and Double Standards

Western countries, presenting themselves as democratic models, have long resorted to imperialist policies, engaging in military interventions, "regime changes," and interference in the internal affairs of other countries. All this under the false pretext of "spreading democracy."

The war in Iraq, the intervention in Libya, ambiguous relations with Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, and the Western double standard regarding the occupation of Palestine and Ukraine illustrate the contradictions and hypocrisy of Western countries. These actions have fueled a sense of injustice and anger in the world, discrediting the Western democratic discourse.

Towards an Uncertain Future

The decline in the prestige of liberal democracies, and the rise of populist movements and authoritarian regimes, mark the end of a cycle. A new political and economic model is emerging, based on mercantilist illiberalism, which prioritizes national interests and places power dynamics above international law, to the detriment of universal values and human rights.

This model, embodied by figures like Trump and Orban, promotes a nationalist and protectionist vision, favoring isolationism and border closures. It is characterized by distrust of democratic institutions and a desire to free itself from international constraints, in favor of economic and military power.

Faced with the rise of authoritarian regimes, democracies must redefine the social contract that binds rulers and the ruled, demonstrate ethical coherence and humility in their international relations. Promoting democracy cannot be done at the expense of national sovereignties, but by cultivating a dialogue based on mutual respect and balanced discourse.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sources and References

Tavoillot, Pierre-Louis. "Le Pouvoir et l’Autorité dans les Démocraties Modernes"

Joseph Stiglitz, "L’Économie de l’inégalité"

Slavoj Zizek  "La Révolte des masses"

Tony Judt, "L'Illusion de la Démocratie"

Dani Rodrik, "L’Économie mondiale à l’ère du populisme".

Pierre-Louis Tavoillot, "Le pouvoir politique se dissout comme l'autorité"

Naomi Klein, "No Logo"

Thomas Piketty, "Le Capital au XXIe siècle"

Yanis Varoufakis, "And the Weak Suffer What They Must?"

Noam Chomsky, "Hegemony or Survival"

Robert Kagan, "The Return of History and the End of Dreams"

John Mearsheimer, "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics"

Joseph Nye, "Soft Power"